FRAX-based Estimates of 10-year Probability of Hip and Major Osteoporotic Fracture Among Adults Aged 40 and Over: United States, 2013 and 2014

NCHS released a new report that uses FRAX estimates from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013–2014 to describe the hip and major osteoporotic fracture probability distribution (for adults aged 40 and over) and prevalence of elevated probabilities (for adults aged 50 and over) in the United States.

The report defines the distribution of the probabilities of having a hip or major osteoporotic (hip, spine, forearm, humerus) fracture in the next 10 years among middle-aged and older US adults.  For example, prior to this report, NCHS didn’t know what the average 10-year probability of having one of these fracture types was in this age range.  NCHS also looked at the prevalence of elevated probabilities for these fractures in adults age 50+ years using thresholds defined by the National Osteoporosis Foundation for that age range.

FRAX algorithms are proprietary equations developed by researchers at the World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Center on Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, UK, to estimate the probability of having a hip or major osteoporotic fracture in the next 10 years.  These equations use age, sex, body mass index, femur neck bone density, and several health and lifestyle variables (smoking, alcohol consumption, personal and parental fracture history, glucocorticoid use, rheumatoid arthritis) to predict these 10-year probabilities.  The equations also account for race and Hispanic origin, because race-specific equations were developed for use in the U.S.

In summary, the report found that the average 10-year probability of hip or major osteoporotic fracture fell below the thresholds considered as an elevated risk in US adults age 50+ in 2013-2014.  However, 8-19% of adults age 50+ had an elevated 10-year probability of experiencing one of these fractures in 2013-2014.