Do 50% of marriages end in divorce?

We get this question all the time and the best we can say is that we don’t know. Based on data produced by the National Survey of Family Growth, 43% of first marriages by women aged 15-44 will end in a “disruption” within 15 years. Disruption is defined as either separation or divorce. As not all separations end in divorce (see Table 33 at the link) is would seem that the 50% figure is an overstatement.

The inestimable Cecil Adams of The Straight Dope takes a look at this “fact” and its probable genesis. While not endorsing this view, anyone writing about marriage and divorce should certainly consider the references he provides.

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